The consensus forecast in the ad industry is that video advertising has been the big opportunity for 2015. Although “cord cutting” is not increasing as quickly as some trend spotters have predicted, we have now bred a generation of adults who have never been connected by a cord . Millennials simply never order cable in the first place; they use their TVs, if they have them, as giant displays for Chromecast or Airplay.
We’ve known for a while that Millennials also watch TV on their mobile devices, and that they were willing to watch videos longer than two minutes. In fact, this year all other market segments seemed to go mobile at once. For a while the ad dollars didn’t follow the viewer behavior, but now Adexchanger’s Data Driven Thinking columnist says, “…based on… discussions with major brands, agencies and advertisers, TV advertisers hope to shift roughly 30% of their $70 billion TV ad budgets to digital video by 2015. That would increase the US market to $21 billion, up from $6 billion in 2013.” Based on information half way through the year, the actual numbers will be bigger.
These budgets are big enough that we must now begin to measure how well digital video advertising works. The rating system for TV, GRPs, hasn’t been a good measurement for quite a while, although we didn’t have any reason to complain about that before digital advertising unlocked the power of actual data. When TV first came on the scene, GRPs measured who was watching a show, and thus you’d know who was watching the ads. But since 1999, when Replay TV first introduced the DVR with its ability to skip ads, GRPs have become less and less an accurate measure of whether a TV ad led to a sale.
We hope that with the tsunami of ad dollars to mobile video, we won’t make the same mistake we did with digital display — turn it into a platform for performance advertising and drive publisher revenues down through the floor. It has taken us more than a decade to recognize that brand lift is a valid objective for online advertising. Now, with mobile video, we should come around much faster to realize that the best way to measure online video ROI might be against TV ROI, which is an apples to apples measurement. TV, of course, has been justified for its capacity to produce brand lift as well as just performance. Digital video, executed well through formats like our inArticle video, will do the same.