Posts

We forecast that you’ll love this

It’s about time sales reps had reliable inventory forecasts.   Leaving money on the table simply because your inventory forecast isn’t accurate is simply not acceptable.  Underdelivering an order, on the other hand, can jeopardize advertiser relationships.

Inventory forecasting is a complex science. Decision-making servers decide which ad to serve to a user only when an ad request comes in from that user. Those decision-making servers execute highly complex algorithms at the very moment of the ad request. They take into account what has already served from each campaign, frequency capping and geo targeting requirements, and much more.

An inventory forecasting system has to predict what these complex decision-making servers will decide. And it has to predict this far in the future. The best it can do is to make a good guess.  How can an inventory forecast keep up with the complexity of thousands of combinations that a decision-making server can handle?

ZEDO has elegantly solved this problem. For each forecast, ZEDO runs the decision-making servers hundreds of times. We run the decision-making server for tomorrow based on predictions of tomorrow’s traffic and store the results of what will serve. We then use these results and a prediction of traffic patterns for the next day, and make another run of the decision server.  We use the results of the second day to generate the third day, and so on.

Why is this better?  Simple. Rather than guessing what the decision server will do, we are executing all decisions: actually running them hundreds of times for every forecast. It is a huge undertaking that is both CPU and data intensive. Since the same engine that determines ad-delivery does predictions as well any improvements to the decision engine are also immediately reflected in the forecasts. Further, this is uniquely possible because ZEDO built a predictive delivery system 10+ years ago – some of you may remember why.

What it does  provide are beautifully accurate forecasts. And the premium ad sales rep can even see day-by-day illustrations of how each advertiser’s impressions will be served. This is a remarkable leap forward, for direct sales forces across the country. ZEDO inventory forecasts are a tool that every sales rep must have in their arsenal.