We recently listened to Terence Kawaja, founder and CEO of Luma Partners, our industry’s investment bankers. Kawaja participates in many of the mergers and acquisitions now occurring in the industry, and he had some interesting information that made us believe ZEDO and ZINC are moving in the right direction — toward highly differentiated offerings.
We are no longer defining ourselves as an ad tech company, because we are no longer simply a middle man in transactions. We are a private platform that services a premium publisher network on the one hand, and major brands who want innovative formats that generate high engagement on the other. Our latest innovation is “Watch and Engage,” designed for affinity groups and fans on mobile devices and made to run within apps.
Kawaja says that the dark night of ad tech is occurring in the pullback of undifferentiated companies, many funded during the ad tech hey- day by venture capital. Some of those companies, which he declined to name, “are zombies, under siege but hard to kill.”
There are currently 4000 companies in the Lumascape. (We remember when there were fewer than 2000.) In the current environment, you can have a company with $20, $50, or even $100 million in revenue and not be safe, because most ad tech companies are not SaaS and they do not have continuing revenue. To succeed, a company today needs scale, growth and profitability.
One company Kawaja mentioned favorably is The Trade Desk, whose IPO was highly successful even in what has been called the dark hours for ad tech.
When questioned about the “duopoly” of Facebook and Google, and its effects on the future of the sector, Kawaja was surprisingly optimistic. There will still be market opportunities, he said, even when everyone is perceived to be fighting about scraps, because the industry is now so large that a good company can take market share from another, less technically astute and customer-focused company and grab a slice of the $34 billion market remaining after the duopoly has soaked up 75% of the ad spend. Behind Google and Facebook, Amazon has the best shot at being a credible #3, because with its Alexa devices, Amazon has made every house into a Trojan horse for information.
Another cause for Luma’s optimism is Kawaja’s belief that ad tech will see multiple exits next year over $100 million each. He says ad tech is like any other tech sector, although it has more “false positives,” by which he means companies that appear to be innovative and successful, but are actually not differentiated enough in their product offerings to compete in the marketplace. Those will continue to be acquired next year.
In the media industry itself, Kawaja sees the beginnings of a big migration from I/O to programmatic that we have been seeing and participating in for four years. When he spoke of the beginnings, we thought he must be referring to the video end of the business, convergent TV, or streaming over the top, because display went to programmatic years ago. But the convergences of TV and video, happening as we speak, disintermediates a market that consists of $75 billion in cable and network TV spend, and another $75b in paid TV.
So there’s plenty of money for companies that can truly add value, as we believe we can. Get in touch with us at firstname.lastname@example.org to find out.