We saw our first prediction of computers coming to the living room at the Consumer Electronics Show in 1996. Microsoft and Intel thought that the way to get the PC into every home was to make it a media server, and they collaborated on Windows Media Center on Pentium chip boxes. The vision: everyone would have a computer in the living room hooked up to the big screen, and that’s how we would view media in the future.
That vision was roundly resisted by ordinary people who saw the beige and gray PC boxes and towers as too ugly for the living room. And besides, computers were still much slower than the TV, which came on instantly and never crashed.
Nearly 20 years later, that vision has totally skipped the living room and morphed into “TV anywhere,” a state in which viewers watch TV in the living room, all right, but it is increasingly being cast from mobile phones and tablets via Chromecast or Airplay. Being near a big screen isn’t essential to viewing content, and if we turn on the TV at all it’s often just to take images off our phones and look at them on a larger screen. We don’t care about TV schedules, nor do we think of the TV as the source of our only content. Increasingly, people are watching TV either time-shifted or with the TV serving as a dumb display for the content from the mobile phone.
Much of today’s TV watching is “Over the Top,” streamed from online by people who have never connected to cable or satellite in the first place or who have “cut the cord.” This creates an interesting conundrum for advertisers. If viewers fast forward through ads using a DVR or watch something else on a mobile device while the ads play, what does this mean for TV advertising, which was for many years the most effective way to reach people?
About five years ago we predicted that rich media advertising could make online advertising as effective as TV advertising, and we set out to develop the products to do that. Admittedly we haven’t been alone, but if you think about it, our “outstream” format (which we had named inArticle before the industry landed on the term “outstream”) and our high impact formats have been instrumental in moving ad dollars from TV to online and now to mobile.
So in this season of making predictions, we think it’s safe to predict that with all the emphasis on data and metrics accompanying the shift from TV to mobile, we will soon be completely convinced by data that video advertising beats TV for marketers.