Because we’ve been watching the industry since before the turn of the century — yes, we were founded in 1999 –we find it amusing to see people try to predict what’s going to happen in ad tech, despite the fast moves that upend the predictions year after year. 2017 will be no different, but we’re going to throw our ideas out there anyway.
- Facebook will find itself in greater trouble than ever after a year of disillusioning metrics for publishers and de-prioritization of their content. Analysts have said that the rise of “fake news” sites on Facebook corresponded with when the company tweaked its newsfeed algorithms to favor user-generated content over that from professional publishers. User-generated content turned out to be hundreds of sites generated by Macedonian teens who now are empowered to think they may have influenced the American election.
- Advertisers will thus re-think the percentage of ad spend they allot to Facebook, and spend more dollars on sites they know are premium and are still destinations for their targeted buyers.
- A confluence of changing ideas and necessity brought about by the percentage of people using ad blockers will re-define reach and scale, making the definitions more about reaching the “right” customer, and not just about reaching someone who will find the ads offensive or irrelevant and turn her ad blocker on again.
- Digital video CPMs will continue to rise, because video is the only way to reach viewers on mobile, especially on non-video sites. Outstream video will continue to outperform the market, and ZINC’s innovation suite will continue to outperform its competitors.
- More venture funded ad tech companies will run out of money without having found a business model that adds value to either the advertiser or the publisher, and they will be forced to either shut down or be acquired as revenue becomes the major source of expansion funding.
- The ad industry in Europe will be quietly preparing to leave London as new data privacy guidelines and the Brexit create business challenges that make staying in the UK more difficult and expensive.
- The nascent mobile advertising industry in Africa will grow faster than almost any other reason except perhaps southeast Asia, because of the rapid deployment of inexpensive smartphones.
- Snapchat’s IPO will cause a flurry of interest on the part of advertisers until they realize it has pivoted to be a camera company. Brands will experiment with it and not be able to prove ROI for a long time, if ever.
- Digital video advertising will finally get its due as a great way to do targeted branding campaigns.